While projections for the rapid rise in EV passenger cars and buses is well established, new research from BloombergNEF (BNEF) now predicts that commercial EVs are also set to explode over the next two decades.
The new report offers a detailed look into the global commercial vehicle market, with projections showing electric models claiming 56% of light commercial vehicle sales in Europe, the U.S. and China over the next two decades, as well as 31% of the medium commercial market.
Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF, commented: “Our conclusions are stark for fossil fuel use in road transport. Electrification will still take time because the global fleet changes over slowly but, once it gets rolling in the 2020s, it starts to spread to many other areas of road transport. We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak.”
The report also points out the role of shared mobility services such as ride-hailing and car-sharing services, claiming they will could represent up to 19% of all passenger miles traveled globally by 2040.
BNEF says it does not expect autonomous driving to have an impact on global transport and energy patterns until the 2030s.
McKerracher added: “Transport is moving into a period of disruptive change, with many different factors coming into play. We have incorporated several new elements into our analysis, including an updated EV cost model that includes the cost of a home EV charger to reflect more accurately the costs individuals face to go electric; and a battery chemistry forecast for each of the new segments covered in this year’s report.”
Read excerpts from the report here: https://bnef.turtl.co/story/evo2019